Prior to 1970, the Syrian economy was based on agriculture and trade, benefiting from its geographical location and strong trade relations, which integrated it into the global market. The private sector was active, contributing to stable economic growth. After 1970, Syria adopted centralized economic policies that led to the nationalization of companies, impacting productivity despite gains in sectors like oil. Subsequently, the economy faced challenges such as sanctions and political turmoil, which affected growth and infrastructure.

Today, liberated from the previous regime, Syria seeks to rebuild its economy through structural reforms, investment promotion, and innovation stimulation, including the application of artificial intelligence to enhance competitiveness and productivity.

• Strategic Significance of the Syrian Market:

The Syrian economy possesses an exceptional geographical location connecting three continents: Asia, Africa, and Europe, granting it an undeniable competitive advantage. It is erroneous to view the size of the Syrian market solely based on population or geographical area; this approach overlooks the true dimension of the Syrian market’s value. The more accurate measure is its potential as a central platform for trade and investment, as Syria represents a key transit point for regional and international supply chains.

• Syria’s Role as a Hub for Regional Investments:

The Syrian economy cannot be reduced to a mere local consumer market; rather, it constitutes a major gateway for regional investments, particularly in the logistics sector. With the development of land, sea, and air transport infrastructure, Syria can transform into a major logistics hub, reinforcing its position as a commercial link between emerging markets and major economies.

• Population Growth Projections and Impact on the Labor Market:

It is projected that the resident population in Syria will double, reaching 45 million within the next decade, driven by the return of displaced Syrians and expatriates, coupled with an influx of foreign labor following increased investments in Syria. Sectors expected to experience rapid growth include manufacturing, financial services, technology, and tourism. This necessitates the formulation of flexible economic policies to accommodate these changes.

Table (1) Projected Population Growth:

After 14 years of conflict, 90% of Syrians live in poverty, and the economy has lost 24 years of human development. With the return of the displaced, it is imperative to establish social protection networks or centers to address the legacies of conflict, displacement, poverty, and war, and to prepare society’s members for coexistence and rebuilding. This process may take a decade before achieving a civilizational intellectual capital.

• Challenges and Opportunities for Syrian Companies:

Amidst these anticipated transformations, Syrian companies face a set of challenges, the most prominent being:

1. Restructuring the business environment to ensure alignment with regional and international market requirements
2. Developing management methods in the private sector to align with competitive markets involving foreign direct investment (FDI).

Table (2) Diversification of the Economic Structure:

Conversely, there are promising opportunities. Syrian companies can achieve a competitive advantage by:

1. Leveraging Syria’s strategic location to attract investments in transport and logistics sectors.
2. Expanding regional and international partnerships to enhance access to foreign markets.
3. Improving the regulatory environment to ensure transparency and global competitiveness.

Table (3) Transforming Challenges into Opportunities:

• The Imperative for Syrian Companies to Adopt a Flexible Economic Vision:

1. Dynamics of the Syrian Market and Anticipated Changes:

• The Syrian economy is undergoing a restructuring phase reflecting a trend towards greater openness to regional and international investments. This phase requires companies to adopt more dynamic policies in several key areas:
• Adapting to Financial and Banking Shifts: With the increasing need for new monetary strategies, Syrian companies must work on developing more sophisticated financial instruments to finance their projects and ensure stable cash flows.
• Keeping Pace with Technological Developments: Relying on modern technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and e-commerce, will enhance the ability of Syrian companies to compete in global markets.
• Integration into Regional and Global Supply Chains: By developing logistical capabilities and improving operational efficiency, Syrian companies can become part of the global supply ecosystem, thereby increasing their foreign trade volume.

2. Flexible Strategy as a Core Pillar for Growth and Sustainability:

Adopting a flexible economic vision by Syrian companies requires focusing on several pillars:

• Diversifying Economic Sectors: Instead of relying on traditional sectors like industry and agriculture, investments should be boosted in high-growth sectors such as:
• Financial Technology (Fintech): Developing digital payment services and electronic financing solutions to enhance business process efficiency.
• Value-Added Manufacturing Industries: Such as pharmaceutical and technological industries that yield higher profits compared to traditional industries.
• Logistics and E-commerce: Given Syria’s role as a regional center, companies can benefit from digital trade and connect markets through advanced logistical solutions.
• Preparing Syrian Companies for Global Competitiveness: To become key economic players on the international stage, Syrian companies must invest in improving the quality of their products and services according to global standards. Key aspects include: (Compliance with international quality and manufacturing standards – Investment in Research and Development (R&D) – Leveraging modern technologies).

3. Practical Recommendations for Adopting a Flexible Economic Vision:

    To ensure the success of economic transformations in Syria, companies need to adopt clear policies and strategies, such as:

1. Developing long-term investment plans based on rigorous analysis of local and global economic trends.
2. Shifting private sector management thinking from a monopolistic business environment to a competitive one based on innovation and entrepreneurship.
3. Focusing on workforce development through continuous training and reliance on advanced skills to support economic growth.

    A flexible economic vision is not merely an option, but a strategic necessity to ensure the sustainability of the Syrian economy and enhance its global standing. If Syrian companies can adopt this approach, they will be able to seize investment opportunities and achieve competitiveness, contributing to building a strong and sustainable economy that supports long-term stability and development. Startups in Syria face a challenging environment, but they can succeed by adopting smart and flexible strategies.

4. The Future of the Syrian Economy by 2035:

    If the rehabilitation of the Syrian economy continues within clear strategies, the Syrian market is poised to become one of the largest regional markets by 2035. This can be achieved through:

• Enhancing Syria’s role as an integrated logistics center.
• Expanding the base of modern services such as Fintech and smart education.
• Building an economic model based on sustainability and regional integration.

    Amidst these transformations, Syrian companies need to adopt a flexible economic vision that accommodates future growth and investment opportunities, ensuring the sustainability of the national economy and strengthening its position on the global economic map.

5. Geo-Economic Opportunities in the Syrian Market:

    Axis One: Transformation into a Regional Logistics Center:

1. Value of Geographic Location: Syria occupies a position at the core of regional supply networks, reducing trade costs between Arab, Asian, and European markets, enabling Syria to play a role in distribution efficiency.
2. Developing Logistics Infrastructure: The transformation into a Logistics Hub requires massive investments in modern road networks (multi-modal transport corridors), upgrading seaports and expanding their capacity, and developing air infrastructure (airports and cargo terminals). Achieving this would increase the share of logistics services in GDP and attract export-oriented manufacturing investments.

    Axis Two: Demographic Dynamics and their Structural Effects:

    Estimates projecting a population increase from 25 million to 45 million within a decade are not solely a product of natural demographic growth, but are significantly influenced by investment. This is due to the potential influx of foreign labor to fill skill gaps in expanding sectors.

    Axis Three: Diversification of the Economic Structure:

1. Rise of the Services Sector: Syria is likely to evolve into the largest services market in the region by 2035, driven by:

• Expansion in financial services (insurance, Islamic finance)
• Technology services (data centers, cloud solutions)
• Higher education and specialized healthcare.

2. Sectoral Synergies: Developing logistics acts as a multiplier effect for other sectors:

• Agriculture: Exporting fresh produce via cold chains.
• Industry: Reducing costs of raw material imports and product exports.
• Trade: Enhancing cross-border trade exchange.

    Axis Four: Importance of Syria’s Pragmatic Openness to Regional and International Cooperation:

    Syria’s success as a regional center hinges on building a network of preferential trade agreements with: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states (capital markets), the European Union (technology transfer), and African countries (access to emerging markets). These partnerships will enhance market capitalization and support regional economic integration. Therefore, serious and pragmatic openness to regional and international cooperation has become an urgent necessity to promote sustainable development and activate opportunities for foreign investment in strategic sectors. Economic openness is no longer an option; it has become a fundamental pillar for driving growth and achieving economic stability by attracting capital and modern technologies, and leveraging the privileged geographical location that makes Syria a nexus between regional and international markets.

Table (4) Roadmap for the Syrian Economy until 2035

Adopting a free and flexible economic approach enhances Syria’s role as a promising investment destination. Its geographical location and seaports provide strategic opportunities to attract foreign capital, setting the country on a path to economic recovery through partnerships based on shared interests and long-term planning.

Translating the strategic potential of the Syrian economy into tangible reality is a central challenge requiring three critical pillars: sound economic governance based on transparency and efficiency; a competitive investment environment attracting capital through exceptional tax and procedural incentives; and institutional stability establishing investor confidence through independent legal frameworks. Achieving these conditions will solidify Syria as a “Gateway Economy” by 2035. This goes beyond merely enhancing its position as a logistical nexus between continents; it will unleash a multiplier effect transcending its regional borders. Syria will become an engine for trade integration between the markets of Asia, Africa, and Europe, contributing to a 30% increase in regional trade exchange and attracting qualitative investments exceeding $50 billion in the energy and logistics sectors. Success in this endeavor depends not only on geographical location or natural resources, but on the Syrian economic system’s ability to transform into a secure and flexible regional platform. This platform must be capable of turning challenges into strengths, supporting sustainable growth, and redefining Syria’s role as a vital tributary to the economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).