{"id":9370,"date":"2026-10-30T17:54:59","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T17:54:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wpu.edu.sy\/wpua\/?p=9370"},"modified":"2026-10-31T07:16:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-31T07:16:15","slug":"constructing-a-composite-demand-and-trade-pressure-index-and-assessing-its-impact-on-growth-and-inflation-in-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wpu.edu.sy\/wpua\/en\/constructing-a-composite-demand-and-trade-pressure-index-and-assessing-its-impact-on-growth-and-inflation-in-syria\/","title":{"rendered":"Constructing a Composite Demand and Trade Pressure Index and Assessing Its Impact on Growth and Inflation in Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"9370\" class=\"elementor elementor-9370\" data-elementor-settings=\"{&quot;ha_cmc_init_switcher&quot;:&quot;no&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1b209c6 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"1b209c6\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-deb8704 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"deb8704\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f12ffd1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"f12ffd1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u0627\u0644\u0640\u062c\u0640\u0640\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0640\u0640\u0648\u0637\u0646\u064a\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0640\u062e\u0640\u0640\u0627\u0635\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0629<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5e1b689 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"5e1b689\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">\u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0637\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8ef8b33 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"8ef8b33\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-81e2d89 eael_simple_menu_hamburger_disable_selected_menu_no eael-simple-menu-hamburger-align-right eael-simple-menu-link-full-width eael-hamburger--tablet elementor-widget elementor-widget-eael-simple-menu\" data-id=\"81e2d89\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"eael-simple-menu.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<style>\n                        @media screen and (max-width: 1024px) {\n                            .eael-hamburger--tablet {\n                                .eael-simple-menu-horizontal,\n                                .eael-simple-menu-vertical {\n                                    display: none;\n                                }\n                            }\n                            .eael-hamburger--tablet {\n                                .eael-simple-menu-container .eael-simple-menu-toggle {\n                                    display: block;\n                                }\n                            }\n                        }\n                    <\/style><style>\n                        @media screen and (min-width: 1025px) {\n                        \/* Left aligned horizontal menus lay out with `float: left` on the\n                           items, so their list stays `block` - forcing flex here would\n                           take the items out of flow and break the row. 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Syria<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-183ebca e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"183ebca\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-65951cd e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"65951cd\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-55f5281 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"55f5281\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cf5bb7c elementor-position-top elementor-widget elementor-widget-image-box\" data-id=\"cf5bb7c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-image-box-wrapper\"><figure class=\"elementor-image-box-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/wpu.edu.sy\/wpua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/24379aa906a1321997b29202-150x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-image-8831\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure><div class=\"elementor-image-box-content\"><h3 class=\"elementor-image-box-title\">DR.Dima Fares<\/h3><p class=\"elementor-image-box-description\">Faculty of Administrative and Financial Sciences - Al-Wataniya Private University<\/p><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-42b07f7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"42b07f7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fc0d42f elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"fc0d42f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4cfadf2 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"4cfadf2\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_ha_eqh_enable&quot;:false}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9af3469 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"9af3469\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h5><strong>Abstract:<\/strong><\/h5><div class=\"mt-1\"><strong>This study constructs a composite index of demand and trade pressures in Syria over 1971\u20132022 and examines its dynamic effects on economic growth and inflation within a long-run time-series framework. The methodological design aggregates five real variables at constant 2000 prices that represent key demand and trade channels, namely government expenditure, private consumption, exports, imports, and investment. Principal Component Analysis is then employed to extract a latent index that captures the common movement across these variables and mitigates multicollinearity. The adequacy of the data for index construction is supported by a Kaiser\u2013Meyer\u2013Olkin value of 0.717 and a statistically significant Bartlett\u2019s test (p = 0.000), while the first principal component explains approximately 66.7% of total variance, justifying the use of the composite measure as a summary indicator of the underlying pressure factor. Time-series properties are assessed using the Phillips\u2013Perron test, showing that the TAD index and inflation are integrated of order one, I(1), whereas economic growth is stationary at level, I(0). A Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model is subsequently estimated after selecting an optimal lag length of two according to the majority of information criteria, and shock transmission is evaluated through impulse response functions. The results indicate that a positive shock to the TAD index generates a short-run expansionary effect on economic growth that dissipates quickly without persistent statistical significance in the medium term, while producing a statistically significant short-run disinflationary effect that weakens over subsequent horizons. Overall, the proposed index offers an operational quantitative tool for tracking pressure waves in the Syrian economy and for informing policy trade-offs between supporting real activity and maintaining price stability under heightened uncertainty and volatility.<\/strong><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6ad2b23 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6ad2b23\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div><p><strong>Publisher:<\/strong> Tartous University Journal For Research and Scientific Studies<\/p><\/div><p><strong>URL:<\/strong><\/p><p><a href=\"https:\/\/ojs2.tartous-univ.edu.sy\/index.php\/tujl\/article\/view\/1067\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 17px;\"><strong>\u00a0Open research link 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[&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8829,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_canvas","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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href=\"https:\/\/wpu.edu.sy\/wpua\/en\/category\/faculty-of-administrative-and-financial-sciences-research\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Faculty of Administrative and Financial Sciences \u2013 Research<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/wpu.edu.sy\/wpua\/en\/category\/latest-research\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Latest Research<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/wpu.edu.sy\/wpua\/en\/category\/scientific-research\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Scientific Research<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"\u0627\u0644\u0640\u062c\u0640\u0640\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0640\u0640\u0648\u0637\u0646\u064a\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0640\u062e\u0640\u0640\u0627\u0635\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0640\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0637\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 Home Scientific Articles Articles in Engineering Articles in 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