أثر تغير سعر صرف الليرة السورية في مؤشر سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية

إبراهيم قوشجي; فلا هزيم; سارة جمعة

doi:10.5281/zenodo.21011460

Authors

Dr. Ibrahim Kochaji Al Wataniya Private University
Fala Hazim Al Wataniya Private University
Sara Jomaa Al Wataniya Private University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21011460

Keywords:

Exchange Rate, Syrian Pound Exchange Rate, Damascus Securities Exchange Index, Financial Market, DWX

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of fluctuations in the Syrian pound's exchange rate on the Damascus Securities Exchange Index during the period (2011–2023), within the context of a complex economic crisis driven by intertwined political, security, and economic factors. The significance of the research lies in its examination of exchange rate volatility and its influence on financial markets in crisis environments, through the construction of a hybrid analytical model that integrates econometric tools (unit root tests, cointegration analysis, Granger causality, and GARCH models).

The study's findings indicate that the variables follow a normal distribution and exhibit temporal instability at level values before stabilizing at first differences. This supported the use of cointegration tests, which confirmed the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the exchange rate and the financial index. Regression analysis revealed a statistically significant positive correlation between the two variables, while Granger causality tests identified a unidirectional causal relationship from the Damascus market index to the Syrian pound’s exchange rate—highlighting the financial market’s precedence as a leading indicator of monetary fluctuations.

Based on these results, the researchers recommend adopting flexible monetary policies that respond to shifts in the financial market, developing monitoring and forecasting models based on equilibrium relationships between exchange rates and financial asset prices, and incorporating geopolitical variables into the analytical frameworks of economic policy. They also advocate for the creation of alternative financial indicators that reflect the complex reality beyond conventional models.

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